A bettor should be able to tolerate the risk of losing money. However, every bettor always wants to reduce the risk when betting. This is the main reason a concept such as arbitrage betting developed.
Arbitrage betting, sure bets, or sometimes known as miracle bets, are all the synonyms for placing bets on two opposite outcomes in the situation where given odds ensure you a profit.
When using sure bets, you bet on opposite outcomes using different bookmakers and they are usually, almost always, used in the situation where there are just two possible outcomes.
Let’s imagine that you discovered that a bookmaker number one gives higher chances to one tennis player to win the match, while a bookmaker number two gives higher chances to the second player to win the match.
This is a great example of a sure bet.
Sure bets are difficult to discover because there are odds that can ensure you recognize sure bets.
Even though you know what you are searching for, spend a lot of time to find it. Therefore, sure bets are usually considered time-consuming.
However, know what you are looking for. To find a sure bet, you need to look for two implied probabilities whose sum is less than 100%. For example, an implied probability given to a certain outcome by a bookmaker A is 45% and an implied probability given to the opposite outcome by a bookmaker B is 45%.
The sum is 90% and it is lower than 100%. However, implied probabilities are usually not the same, but an example with the same probabilities is easier to explain and easier to understand.
There are three main steps you need to follow when using sure bets. The first step is that you count implied probabilities.
The formula for counting implied probabilities is implied probability=1/odd. The second step is explained above (you need to look for two implied probabilities whose sum is lower than 100%).
After that, you need to divide an implied probability of both outcomes with the sum of their implied probabilities to find out what percentage of your stake for that bet has to be placed on each outcome.
You can conclude that arbitrage betting is more about math than it is about betting.
You need not do detailed research before placing those bets. The only condition is that you have enough time and patience and that you understand the logic and process behind sure bets.
To make this easier for you, let’s use a real example of a sure bet. Let’s use an example of the tennis match because in tennis there are only two possible outcomes (win of the player A and win of player B). Novak Djokovic is playing in the finals against Rafael Nadal.
The odd given to Novak Djokovic by bookmaker A is 2.90, while the odd given to Rafael Nadal is 1,70. Another bookmaker gives these odds: Novak Djokovic 3.10 and Rafael Nadal 1,80. You have a stake of $200 to bet on this match and you want a sure bet.
Following steps we explained above, you bet on Djokovic at the second bookmaker and on Nadal at first bookmaker. The implied probabilities are 32,26% and 58,82%. The conclusion is that you need to place $70.84 on Djokovic and $129.16 on Nadal. In every case, you will win about $19.
Although they provide sure profits, sure bets have their disadvantages too. They require big stakes; they are time contained, and they are not that common on the market. Be sure you think about what you really want before placing sure bets.